Twenty Years After

 

Twenty Years After

Remember late 2003 and early 2004. India drew test series in Australia Vs Australia. India won in Pakistan versus Pakistan. A B Vajpayee Government was at the helm of the NDA government. The focus was on Infrastructure building across India. There were campaigns built around ‘India Shining’ and ‘Feel Good Factor’. India had withstood the global recession and there was a strong service-driven economy that later created a mid-2000s boom across cities and towns in India. The 2004 general election sprung a surprise where strange coalitions worked behind the scenes and the UPA government was formed under Manmohan Singh. Congress was the main protagonist, and the Gandhi family let Congress again rode to power  for the first time after 1989. Will history repeat itself twenty years after in 2024? 

Let’s try to analyze the events twenty years before. The decade between 1989 till 1999 was marred by political instability. P V Narasimha Rao had done great service to the Indian Economy thanks to the political acumen/guile to drive inevitable liberalization. But subsequently, the lack of political stability resulted in a lack of structural and policy reforms further needed. By completing the full five-year term, A B Vajpayee Government could drive key reforms like disinvestments, Oil companies cross share purchase, Golden quadrilateral, Gram Sadak Yojana, Telecom reforms, Fiscal profligacy, Steps toward GST, Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan, and few other foreign policy initiatives. But the think tank could not make the populace believe in the long-term impacts reaped later by UPA-I. The haste of declaring elections, and the wrong allies hampered NDA. Hi-Tech NDA campaigns and slogans did not resonate where in simple slogans by Congress; careful allies-based politics by UPA resulted in the change of power in 2004. 

Is the situation similar in 2024? Clearly, India is the only shining economy in the world. India now plays a more pivotal role in World politics with its initiates on Quad, G20. Indian deft foreign policy during the Ukraine crisis has been exemplary and has benefitted India. Aspirational India constitutes a large section of the population that does not want to be left out. Aspiration definitely has trickled down to the masses along with resources (though not in the same proportion). The amount of activity around construction, infrastructure, startup ecosystem, entertainment, and sports is tremendous across India. The economy has recovered from the setbacks of Covid and GST implementations.  The healthcare system was efficient during the vaccination drive and helped us recover from second-wave damage. Demonetization which was demonized by all and sundry helped widen the tax net. There were no foreign-sponsored terror attacks on the mainland. Naxal-related incidents have gone down.  India’s labor market has seen an upward trend in employment since July last year with 15 million people entering the workforce in the last three quarters out of which more than 75% or 11.2 million gained employment. The country's employment rate increased to 36.9% in March 2023 from 36.6% in December 2022, while the number of unemployed persons dropped by almost two million highlighting that many individuals were able to secure jobs. The fiscal discipline that has been shown by Government has resulted in financial stimulus across sectors through lower interest rates.  Tata's order to large aviation giants in Europe and the US kind of provided stimulus to the respective economies. We now lead world in the digital transactions. India has used technology effectively in policy-making, healthcare delivery, and distribution of welfare benefits.  Focus on cleanliness, and manufacturing though not have yielded results as expected but there is attention to me at government levels. Ujwalla, Jan Dhan, and various schemes have benefitted the masses.  

All this positivity has created special attention for the adversaries of India. These adversaries include the bigger economies and bankrupt economies in India’s neighborhood. The bigger economy has various issues internally as well as externally.  They have worldwide attention through trade wars, espionage, and interference in neighboring regions. They resort to historical border mischief. The bankrupt economies (maybe fallout of Indian demonetization) have resorted to open wars and hidden wars through terrorism. These adversaries also include ‘so-called’ socialist powermongers operating from their rich mansions in advanced countries. The traditional elitists from the developed world, religious lobbies, and Western media backed by all above have traditionally looked down upon India. All the positivity in India's story has made these forces join hands to kind of undermine, discredit, and also have a decisive say in India's story by influencing democratic elections.  These forces are backing normally diverse forces that constitute Indian political opposition. It all started with orchestrated efforts to destabilize the current dispensation. All have realized that this may be the last chance for them to facilitate regime change.  Big Indian corporates were targeted for ruling party nexus and irregularities.  The intolerance, polarization, and religious persecution of minorities were projected to be the essence of the new India. This is their most potent weapon to raise opinion-making against India's story. Western media along with their local counterparts and sympathizers started with a barrage of global opinion-making against new India on one side despite the fact that at government levels there was closest collaboration and cooperation between the developed world and India.  

There are notable differences between 2004 and 2024. India was nowhere on the world scene then it is at the center stage now which itself can be achievements of policies starting from Narasimha Rao and  Vajpayee Government till Modi government barring the wasted years of policy paralysis during UPA2. UPA1 had few success stories but terrorism, and corruption undermined them.  That attention can be a double-edged sword. It can sway the electorate decisively or it can act as a powerful tool for regime change.  Another major difference is that people have seen differences in Coalition politics and single-party decisiveness in policymaking.  

The coming eleven months is the most important period in the history of modern emerging India. It’s for our vibrant democracy to uphold and continue upon the growth story or choose the opportunity-driven coalition politics of yesteryears.