Everyone has an opinion about Chat-GPT and Artificial Intelligence. Engineers and entrepreneurs see it as a new frontier: a bold new world to invent products, services, and solutions. Social scientists and journalists are worried about its impact on society, politics, economics, and general well-being.
If one Googles: ‘ What is ChatGPT?’: Chat GPT is a technology that uses statistics, reinforcement learning, and supervised learning to index words, phrases, and sentences. While it has no real “intelligence” (it doesn’t know what the word “means” but it knows how it is used), it can very effectively answer questions, write articles, summarize information, and more. Chat-GPT-like products are “trained” (programmed and reinforced) to mimic writing styles, avoid certain types of conversations, and learn from your questions. It is not a new idea (we’ve had chatbots for decades, including Siri, Alexa, and more), but the level of performance in GPT-3.5 (the latest version) is far exceeding. One can ask questions like “what are the best practices for IT security compliance” or “how do you build a programming training program” and it answers pretty well. And it has lots of other capabilities. It can answer historic questions like who was president of the US in 1856, it can write code. Satya Nadella believes 80% of the code will be automatically generated. ChatGPT-like products can write news articles, information summaries, and more. These systems are “trained and educated” by the database of information they index. The GPT-3 system has been trained on the internet and some highly validated data sets, so it can answer a question about almost anything. But the Internet is a source that is dubious because “the internet” is a conglomeration of marketing, self-promotion, news, and opinion. Some senior AI engineers believe that Chat-GPT will be biased, simply because of the data it tends to consume. Its competitor Google is building products with ethics inbuilt for example: “do not give financial advice”,“do not discuss race or discriminate” and “do not give medical advice”. One expert believes that there are hundreds of applications for ChatGPT in business: recruiting, onboarding, sales training, manufacturing training, compliance training, leadership development, and even personal and professional coaching. If companies focus AI on a trusted domain of content it can solve the “expertise delivery” problem at scale. This tech can be compared now to the early days of “mobile computing.” In the early days we saw Mobile devices as an “add-on” capability to our corporate systems. Then it grew, expanded, and matured. And today most digital systems are designed for mobile first, they build entire tech stacks around mobile, and we study behavior, markets, and consumers through their phones. Now let's understand threat points. A lot of jobs will change. There will be jobs that will be immediately impacted by Chat-GPT for example editors, reporters, analysts, customer service agents, QA engineers, etc. Of About 10.3 million jobs open, about 8% (800,000) will immediately be impacted. Some people are already concerned about the Misuse of ChatGPT in education and skill building. Some people believe chatbots might replace programming jobs in Indian IT Industry. It's early days as yet but the threat looms over as well there is an in-built opportunity to master the technology and use it effectively.
But there is a serious threat that looms over another AI: Aspirational India and there is as well an opportunity. These are the last 12-14 months before the General Elections in 2024 as well in some key states. We already have seen that India stands out as a bright spot in the otherwise gloomy economic outlook in most of the world. Aspirational India which has risen since the 1991 liberalization under PV Narasimha Rao and has seen growth in the mid-2000s, faced a global recession from 2009 till 2011, recovered from the double whammy of Covid and consolidation of much necessary GST regime. Now as we recover again we might see the politics edging out the economic gains achieved. We may also see security issues in the near future which might challenge India's story. The neighbors have their own problems internally but won’t shy out from conflicts. India's story might be challenged, and tarnished in the International arena as we have seen during recent attacks on the incumbent party by a biased piece of journalism that challenges Indian institutions and some targeted financial houses to again tarnish financial systems suggesting crony capitalism. Aspirational India which created startup environments, tech and services economy, innovation and entrepreneurship will be the ones who will be affected more. Recessionary trends or downward spirals in Indices or diffidence by domestic and foreign investors will impact jobs and growth. But then aspirational India has the opportunity to size up various political and economic agendas. India still is a very vibrant democracy. It can lead political parties; Incumbents and Challengers to stay on the track which supports Aspirational India. Aspirational India has Natural Intelligence and can derive from various data sources: Biased and unbiased. Aspirational India can discern dubious agendas in opinion-making, and economic decision-making. We should observe the focus on Infrastructure, Cleanliness, Healthcare, and Education as pillars of growth within the political agendas. We should also analyze trends in internal security for citizens against major challenges like terrorism, naxalism, etc., and corruption which impede us as a society. We need efficient bureaucracy. Aspirational India was an element that was totally ignored during the license raj. It was a crime to aspire. Those privileged were given access to money and power. Outsiders never had a chance. But as we see outsiders and aspiring Indian success stories across the domains, things are changing. We cannot afford to derail the India story. As elections will be nearer, we will see more threats looming to impact India's story which is still nascent and we have miles to go to reach where we want to be. It is time for aspiring India to make its opinion count.
Both Artificial Intelligence and Aspirational India are standing at the inflection point in their respective Histories
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