Recessions in India

I have been in my profession for last 16 yrs since 1996 when i started out as fresher out of my esteemed campus. This as i count is the fourth cycle of recession since then. Incidentally, this time span can be drawn parallel to opening of Indian economy after 1991. Each recession had varied factors leading to varied, varied experiences and varied response by various entities involved.
Let us start by definition and cause of recession.

Recession is defined as significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months, which is normally visible in real GDP, real income,employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.An economy typically expands for 6-10 years and tends to go into a recession for about six months to 2 years. A recession normally takes place when consumers lose confidence in the growth of the economy and spend less. This leads to a decreased demand for goods and services, which in turn leads to a decrease in production, lay-offs and a sharp rise in unemployment. Investors spend less as they fear stocks values will fall and thus stock markets fall on negative sentiment.Though, i do not have direct experience for span between 91-96 as i was cocooned in distant campus, experts may fill in with some more insight to that time span. Though as per IMF study period between 91-93 was also termed as recession but that can be attributed to past closed economy effect spilling over post 91 era. Also any study prior to 91 is not relevant today as our economy was sheilded from worldwide trends.
As per IMF definition first recession was in 97-98. This recession righly was involved in core sector as new economy sector was fledgeling and with Y2k indian IT story just had no stopping. But volumes very just about getting to grow. Cong govt was replaced by not so strong Devegaouda and IK Gujral governments (Surprisingly PC was in charge then as well). The demand for core goods dropped. There was real estate correction in Mumbai, Auto and ancilliaries demand dropped. I remember all small PCMC Telco dependant suppliers faced shutdowns. and finally there was great Asian crisis impacting finance sector and banks. The great Asian meltdown reminds me of black monday back then sensex dropped for record %.
All this while US was ruled by Clinton and economy was booming which benefitted Indian IT and new economy was grown which took out entire economy out of recession in 99 or so. Also indian politics was stable with BJP government supporting telecom and other disinvestment reforms. Tata indica project revved PCMC belt by the end of millenium.
Then can the great rally of dotcom boom. The markets were bullish with stories of hotmail, junglee, mergers and acqusitions. Portals were coming up. STPI scheme helped mushroom the IT sector. Every builder, seth and panwala registered IT company. Companies retrained Y2k engineers to Java and anyone knowing J of Java went to US. Remember Job markets then.
And then came the bust, suddenly. Dot com valuations were busted and then came 9/11, anhrax, sars, afgan war. Thus every sector was touched be it banking, airlines, manufacturing. IT companies struggled. The same engineers went to US came back and strugged for jobs. I remember plights of freshers out in those years. Its all about being born in right year, as Malcomn Gladwell says in Outliers.  It took late 2003 buyoed by ITES story arising out of second wave of IT, opening of US economy that revived market. India started looking beyond US for new opportunities. Thankfully indian govt was stable all round while modernizing core sectors, stress on infrastructure: port , golden quadrilateral. Economy flourished and 'India shining' feel good factor ads which had some strange connotation in Indian politics were screened in media.  Thanks t o strange ways of indian politics, then came UPA1 govt supported by left. Though Left policies dreaded by stock market were kept at bay shrewdly by team of MMS-Pranav-PC and Sonia. The same team as we now flounders to keep abreast currently. The economy boosted by presence of MMS continued to rally till we had US subprime crisis hitting our financial sector. This time it was the finance sector that was impacted first and effects felt all around. IT sector was impacted by US situation and politics of Obama against outsourcing. Realty sector was hampered by financial lending crisis. There was correction in prises. UPA 1 did well to manage financial policies and kept the global meltdown at bay. Key decisions like nuclear deal, monetary reforms were made. Banking sector fundamentals shared from much maligned preliberalization era helped us.
Then came UPA without left clutches. Market was optimist now that reforms will be pushed. US market started recovering slowly. It took 2010 for US ecomony to look upwards. This time the up circle was shortlived (which normally is 4-6 years). By 2012, thanks to Eurozone crisis, arab iran crisis impacting oil, japan earthquake, china slowdown. India this time floundered due to lack of policy making and political will.
The policy freeze has lowed down foreing investeor confidence and thus rupee weakened. Inflation doesnt allow RBI to cut interest rates. International oil and faling rupee has create BOP crisis like that of pre91. Are we back to pre91 days. Thus cycle has been completed and recession cycles amidst were mere storms in tea cups. This sounds ominimous but we are headed towards Depression. Last time liberalization bailed us out thanks to PV Narsimharao's political will (not MMS who is wrongfully credited). This time what will bail us out. Monsoon also seem depressing till now. Does is call for new elections or war?

Heat is On...Waiting for Rains

sorry for no show in May due to work and vacations....

There is heat all around. Summer vacations have come to an end and all kids will soon start new academic year. Summer vacations have been spent. IPL over. Travel plans executed and photo albums uploaded. Mind still refuses to come out of those nice spent holidays. Mango season in over. Summer camps, swimming classes, hobby classes all coming to an end. Aroma of new books, uniforms, bags takes you back to your school days which were simply priceless. One one thing missing : rains. Monsoon progess is studied by govts, economists, stock markets, water suppliers, tanker loobies , railways, and we all the aam people of this special country. Hope all is well on that front which will we know soon.
But all is not well elsewhere and there is heat everywhere. Common man is facing heat of inflation. Food costs have gone up. Petrol though has cooled down a bit but govt still refuses to pass on that relief. Having studied balance sheets of all oil companies one wonders whether loss accounts claimed by govt are for real. Having supported privatization and opposing subsidies, it makes any cry for government control over oil prices something of double standards. But after having studied the taxation of petrol, it highlights pure mismanagement. There are anamolies like selling deisel to mercedes over at same price as to a goods carrier. LPG distribution are marred with rackets. But who cares. On one side we had bumper crops and other side we have inflated food prices. Middlemen benefit, farmers commit suicides. Politicians thrive.
Heat is also on toll as MNS promises their style of protests. Toll is simply a big organized loot. We need to study BOT model. Build fine, opertae fine, recover money only till point cost is covered. Toll cannot be forever when we have BOT mode. Certain maintainenance costs are applicable but cost recovery and maintenance should be rationalized. Its heard that this racket goes all up till delhi with very big names involved in political spectrum. But who cares
Heat is on finance ministry when S&P has warned that India might be the  first BRIC country to fall off. I assume major ecomomic fundamentals still are ok but the problem is policy paralysis by the government. No economic decisions are taken out of politcial compulsiosn. Corruption is undermining policy making. No political will. Multiple power centers are affecting executive. Non constitutional institutions like party high commands prevailing over most powerful PMO. Heat is on Rupee which has taken serious beating.
Heat is on fight against corruption. The anna movement which gained popularity in 2011 has been maligned systematically by govt and opposition. Political class has shred crocodile tears for losing sovereignity of parliament to civil society while ignoring own abuses to same cause. Fight against corruption has lost venom. All corrupt people like kalmadis, rajas , tainted maharashtra ex cms, army officers , beurocrats are out  and acting publically as if nothing has happened. Public has lost its last hope.
Heat is on talwars in unending whodidit aarushi-heraj saga and their trail by media.
Heat is on Doctors who have decided to shoot messenger like aamir khan. Yes aamir might be taking crores for episode amd he might have abandoned his first wife but thats his professional and private life. And are all points taken up are not real? Carry on doctors...
Heat is on presidential polls as if president office matters. Even PM post can be a rubber stamp appointment so leave aside president post. By all means we can have some convenient posting. Current incumbent a clear example of whats wrong with system. President house image has taken sever beating. Dirty politics is on. Sometimes i wonder if US style presidential system can work better than our parliamentary system to help us eradicate evils of election process, have people clear say on policy matter. That can give executive clear mandate to take decisions. Ofcourse some safety intrelock like election commission like Lokpal or some watchdog to monitor executive. anyways such reforms can be thought only in dreams. Even constitutional lokpal introduced in 60s cannot hold its charge.
Heat is on in Eurozone to take some calls on reviving failing economies. Though experts prefer speculating on Eurosoccer matches over stocks.
Heat is on London as it waits for olympics. Heat will be on Indian players to compete there. But with people still at helm at IOA, no hopes can be nuturtured.
We all now wait for rains. Rains to cool us down. Rains to make farmers happy, Rains to reduce water cuts, Rains in form of govt policies to stop slide in economy. Rains to stop fall of rupee. Rains to attract foreign policy. Rains to revive fight against corruption. Rains to ease out inflation. Rains to give politicians sense to prevail in ruling matters and appointments. Rains to reduce prices of oil and rationalize tolls. Rains to solve our problems. But we have seen rains in past creating havoc as well clogging our progress and disrupting our lives. So wishing for a balanced rain needed for a bumper harvest. am i not asking for too much?

New Stadium in Pune

Had to chance to visit new stadium in Pune. Lovely stadium. Good ambience and facilities. Its bit away from city but at manageable distance. Public transport is pathetic anyways in Pune so private vehicle is only possible mode (though PMPML initiated special buses) .
The match vs the champions CSK was good. PWI bowling and fielding restricted total to 155. Jessi Ryder stayed anchor inspite of pathetic running between. He never let asking rate climb to unmanageable number. And find of season steven smith completed the hitting and winning. Crowd was electric and behind home team. I dont know why some mature adults behave insane when they see camera. That has been my pain point for all stadium matches. Also the family men and singles were so crass ogling at guest cheerleaders. The comments to players though were witty (eg. when raina came to field someone asked where is rames, the sures-ramesh jodi famous from cadbury or their rivals i dont remember. ad recall lost due to emphasise on humor), but most of the time comments were not so dignified esp to foreign and away players. Ashwin had torrid time esp after his fight with smith. The PA system though is not upto mark as it is in some other venues. Music played was good and added to fun quotient.
The problem is see with this stadium is they have planned only for night matches. ifwe have ODI, for the first half crowd excpet those in main section have to face direct sun rays. Another is the parking management. we had to wait 2 hrs to even imagine we could move our car. some better management can help as they have good parking space. Even stadiums like wankhede which is in the heart of city has better systems. I remember when i was in korea during WC soccer 2002 in Busan. The entire crowd of 90,000 was cleared in 30 mins falt. ofcourse they had metros directly having station on ground and private vehicles were parked at 4 directions with guranteed access to each car parked to exit.
But the field, other facilities are good. Food people were moving around with infated (300%) prices. ofcourse thats their logistics. They dont have change so i lost some money as guy promised to return change and never was seen.
Anyways good match and support for Dada boys. Road ahead midway seems tough but dada had given the team a purpose and inspite of not being able to partcipate in auctions they have posed good challenge to top teams like Mumbai, delhi, chennai. With clarke joining things can definitely improve. I cannot wait for match at eden gardens where dadas boys play KKR . i am sure PWI will have home support.

General Vs Government

Just heard from press release from indian govt that the news which reported that Indian army had marched towards delhi in jan12 is false and imagination by media. That news itself had made many wonder that if Indian Army would have really intended to take over government in sort of coup or so, it would have not been a worst case scenario. India would have joined ranks of banana republics in asia, africa, south and central africa (all geographies excluding so called developed western world) including the most banana and treacherous neighbours we have in east and west.But comparing that to current democracy which does not exist in India. We have a govt which wants to control internet, wants to damage elite institutions of learning, which lives by mega corruption, is driven by foreign antinational agenda, is not decisive to make indian economy transparent and effective for survival, is blaming diverse coalition politics for all ills, is bent on divisive politics of minority appeasement, which undermines democracy by votebank politics, is casteist (though in reverse fashion), which has no policy to fight terror except coloring it by religiuon and obsfuscating investigation, it rolls back its policies, it has no clue tp naxalism who rule roost in dominat areas, it has let down its farmers, it has let down cities by means of unplanned development, damaged environment , uncontrolled mining, lot more..... We have opposition which is non existant, opportunist and though has good governance track record due to past leaders, present seems dicey. we have a civil movement which is much maligned by govt and media and seems like have inconguous agenda. the judiciary is accused and proven of corruption and the appointments are managed by executive. least said about police will be better.so only establishment left unscathed in defence...
And thats where enemies of india (i will name them EOI in short) found and decided to malign last establishment which has respect. EOI is a cult mostly with leftist background, claiming secular but having hidden imperialistic agenda of restoring pre british and post hindu scheme of things where those corrupt rulers could plunder , loot without any fear of law. EOI is sympatheic to beurocracy and corrupt system which have looted india in past for defense procurement deals compromising india's securiy. 1962 war was disaster owing to bad politics and this machinery who had leftist sympathy for communist china. We had a pro-national primeminister in Indira Gandhi who had luck and guts to allow great generals like sam makekshaw to operate and help us win in 1971. She had a great international resolve during pokharan1. We had well meaning prime minister in rajeev gandhi though accused in bofors case hampering army, still he was few distances away from EOI. Now that he was eliminated in srilankan tangle. Rest of his clan now appear to be in control but the relation between EOI and first family is still matter of surmise. Then we had a change in government and he had combination of best PM and President in Atalji and Kalamsir.
It will be tough to blame the EOI within army which resulted in kargil blunder as it can be termed most as treachory by pak and negligence of our establishment. Though coruption and EOI mattered. The much maligned bofors gun and sheer guts of our army and leadership by men at control in kargil led to a very difficult and costly victory. I had a chance to speak to a captain during my trek in himalayas. We spend a whole evening amidst mountains with this brave man who shared all those insights of kargil, defence working and lacunae. But hats off to sheer bravery by army. its the corruption and EOI intervention which is hampering army. The stablishment is rotten that its difficult for honest man to survive. thats what seem to have happened in the VK singh espisode. He must have taken on system. and EOI has made his victim for that. Thats my analsys. Suprisingly media except DNA has joined EOI to malign hi,. TOI had a skew opinion poll, Express suggested a coup in very irresponsible manner. The leakage of document to DNA was a tacit act of EOI to malign indias only respected entity. The points raised by Gen seem valid and no one talks about them as concern. Its disaster to keep such documents in public and DNA should have been more responsible. But mole seems to be part of EOI. Thats my take on this. I feel General is victim and we should support him. Even opposition join govt in maliging general. Dont know about stand of Team Anna or civil society on this. Ofcourse proven EOI usual suspects have blow trumpets like media moguls like burkha clad queen, annoy roy, arnab know it all goswami, dileep pakigaonkar, dileep saradesai's karte, bacchan of express, then the antinationals like NBA stalwart, Goddess of mean things, anti modi brigade, thinkers of bollywoods with pak sympathies, those who run aman ki asha campaigns with terrorist state.
Those who do corruption, those who undermine india, those who divide people of india on caste and religion are ruling the country. Its call for someone to take them on...
The talk of coup though seems mischeiveous and its high time we end this EOI reign over India. India has a great future , its a great country and we will make change as people of India...

GA Vs PL

I grew up watching , listening, viewing PL literature, drama. PL has demi god status esp in our circles. I appreciate PL for his life and value him as a person more than his work. His work is accused of being based only on middle class experiences. Thats another story that the incidences, minute observations , characters are universal and have great human values. His style, langauge is wodehousque. Humor is intelligent and subtle. PL's biography is that of man who has lived 100% . Always seeking full value and enrichment ( not physical riches though he has great philanthrophy track record). he had able support from sunitabai. Be it music, drama, movies, novels, doordarshan/AIR stint, role during emergency, harmonium: a truly versatile geniuos.
On other hand of spectrum is GA. I got sucked into GA much later (as usually happens with serious authors). The names of his novels are mysterious. The stories are dark. The human values explored by GA and 180 degrees opposite of those depicted by PL. But these human experiences are real for sure. If PL is 100% optimist tohuman life. GA is 0% towards life. Life seems an etrenal journey of suffering, pain, mystery, quest.
Both are real aspects of life. Take any morning for example. You start your day expecting day to be fulfilling for your quest. Each one has quest. Quests differ. One can have two ways of looking. PL way when you think that today will be yours. or GA way is that your day is full of drudgery and your quest is meaning less. Dont you agree that our moods swing from one spectrum to another depending on ones inner strengths, outlook and situation. Example you drink for pleasure or to reduce pain. each way of looking is true. You become addicted to each and every thing. Be it pain, success, enjoyment, love , hate : name an emotion and human mind will be slave. Thats GA 's take. For PL is journey of happyness.
That does not mean that PL did not have his share of pain or GA never had happiness. It upto you to define your life.
for commonore like us Life is combination of pain and happiness . Grass is always greener on other side. you feel everyone else apart from you is fine. Facebook adds to that feeling. You start feeling dark. Then you get ray of happiness and feel life is yours for that moment. You are chasing moving target. But the chase can be worthy if you enjoy it. You keep fighting most of the time against your own self. sometime you are your most danagerous enemy. But its your strenghts which have defined life for you till now. Its complicated. Thus life is a novel half written by GA, half written by PL and pages mixed randomly.

Are you Rahul Dravid of your team?

In our close circle of friends we have a character who goes by rules/procedures so much that we call him rahul dravid. He is so meticulous that sometimes it hinders the functioning due to over indulgence in technicalities. of course that was a social service work. But i am sure many of us come across such individuals professionally. whether calling such guys rahul dravid is derogatory or honourable?

Having seen the career of rahul dravid, more often than not it helps team in long run. Sehwag style people might be aggressive and game changers.Tendular types people may be all conquering by means of talent, there will be fighters like ganguly or silent performers like kumble or artisitic players like vvs, but having studied impact of performance someone has comeup that dravids contribution to team is supreme. Cricket like Business is team game and oragnization needs all these skills.
But what motivates normal people looking upo dravid that people with normal skills can be winner by means of continuous hard work, study, dedication, determination and discipline. You dont have to be genius like Tendulkar to get those many runs.
another aspect of dravid is abilty and willingness to do anything for team cause be it opening on greentop or keeping wickets.
sometimes he might have got bogged down and sometimes you wonder purpose of batting is to score runs and not just block but more important is context of game. More than often you will find dravid meeting the requirement.
so that completes my eulogies to big 5 of indian cricket.

Domestic Problem in Indian IT

Some laws which govern behaviour of indian domestic customer for an IT services companies...
1. You can download any software for free from net or get for Rs 400 max from' 'market' so why buy licence or build custom sofwtare paying money to vendor.
2. Vendor and and his employees are your personal slaves now that you have paid some money to him
3. Vendor should spend his own money to make specifications of project and after that you have all rights to decide and discard the project. Everybody does this in sales you know....
4. Vendor personell have transport option like 'engergize' in Star trek serial and can report you anywhere anytime and it costs nothing for vendor
5. Final payment always needs discount as favour while blaming the software not working as expected by him even though he has signed and accepted features.
6.You need to negotiate with vendors saying 'I can develop same project using your graduate relative'
7. Vendor takes responbsibility of maintainng your desktops, O/s , network and webservers depending on type of software you develop.
8 You make your vendor followup for payment atleast thrice before you pay.

there are many more but above ones are very important if you need to be a good IT customer in India...

New lessons in life

Every moment in life teaches you something. This knowledge is sometimes mistaken wrongly as experience. Experience is something you observe and feel. Lesson is something you use for future reference. Each moment gives you experience as well as teaches you new lesson. I used to strongly recommend hostel experience for each individual. Hostel life makes you independnat, gives you new perspective about life, undertsand diversity of opinions, thought proceses, capabilities. All the while your parents and families shield you from these useful experiences and lessons as well when they cocoon you in good intentions of proetcting you from big bad world.
Just as i feel hostel life is must, so is hospitalization.
Surprised, though there is saying in marathi that you wish such calamity should not befall even on your enemy, this hospitalization experience teaches you a lot.
lessons in brief:
1. Take nothing for granted in life : any silly thing can affect your health. you abuse body and body answers for sure. so hence forth follow best practices as much as possible while sitting, reading, working. esp for those in IT like me.
2. Hospitalization puts near ones in total disarray. more the people around you this chaos and load is divided. Thus value your near ones and dont take them from granted.3. Health insurance is comforting. insurance is must.
4. Some people comeout when they hear abt your plight and help you. these people surprise you . These people can be termed as near ones. while some whom you expect to help you keep distance.
5. you are bombarded with advice from all and sundry. Though sometimes irritable, it shows concern. But when you visit someone in hospital you should take care to not irritate someone. some people become emotional and irrational. so avoid being that.
6. it teaches you how to behave when someone else is hospitalized.
7. Doctors can be confusing and two opinions sometimes contradict. But second opinion is must. Decision is yours....
8. Music is only saviour to kill time. you can read but esp those with my plight, music was only saviour.
9. Sleep is only releif from pain.
10. Food can be entertainment.
You are welcome to add more points.