Come September

All those young at heart in 60s would definitely remember the ‘Come September ‘tune which was trademark of all Brass Bands during marriages then. For those young in 90s like us would recall its cheap imitation tune on which Madhuri danced to her glory: ‘Nazaraenin Mili Dil Dhadka’ along with stupid and constipated looking Sanjay Kapoor. The original hollywood film is a classic with some great scenes and music. We are here in September 13.

Lot of things have happened last month in personal as well as global context. 
This was time for change. Change of address is one of those changes which take its toll. Thus I am sorry for the hiatus on this space. It also brings along new hopes, new experiences and new perspective. Also the old memories of old address like some life defining events: both good and bad, fun you had, people around etc hound you. It was kind of mixed emotions really. Zindagi ke safar mein guzar jaate hain ju mukam.... woh phir nahin aate. I had entered a new address in 2003 from where I shifted to today’s new address in 2013. That year I was on steps of thirties and this year forties are just round the corner. Incidentally I celebrated 10^th birthday in new home as well in 1983 as well as twentieth in new hostel (LLR) in 1993.  Man loves number games. That’s why Sachin’s 200^th test has created storm in India and SA.

Sachin still is non committal about retirement. Cricket is on holiday but promises to return in Oct incidentally in Pune to remain nonstop till world cup 15. ODI team looks settled challenges are in tests and t20s. Leander who is of same age like sachin, and yours truly has defied age in NY. Must say its really a great achievement.  Nadal roared back. Rest all is quiet on sports front since i don’t follow club level soccer, F1 (neo elitists urban happening events). Only thing embarrassed us all was IOA battle with politicians.

On social side, daylight murder of activist Dr Dabholkar and failure of state to maintain law and order highlighted by another Nirbhaya case in Mumbai, was at epicentre. It’s really sad that Maharashtra which has great tradition of dissent, debate, modernism and reforms, stooped down to supari killing to suppress dissent. No clues on motive, and motivators, still there are guesses. But whole affair was shocking and sad.  On other side God men are on wrong side of news. But its surprising why always Hindu institutions are blamed by media or god men ridiculed. Though I m not to judge someone but it’s not just one off case. Nirbhaya verdict to hand death sentence to the rapists was welcomed by society and society really hopes to see this as an impact acting as a deterrent.

Elections 2014 are at centre stage. Modi is India’s only hope to restore the country and economy burdened by lack of policies of wrong policies by UPA govt. Advani dissented but that’s a more democratic sign of functioning than Congress. How we loved Obama Vs Hillary inside democrat party? Is that dissent, possible in Congress? Even Digvijay was shown door at CWC. Even there is a chance that high command will reinstall Kalmadi in Pune Loksabha. That will be a true disaster. But then Indian voting patterns are so scary that we cannot rule out UPA 3 despite so low public credibility, bad mouth , poor performance, corruption if you believe popular media to some extent and social media totally.  Definitely a hung house is on cards. This situation is scarier when the wily opportunists will claim their pound of flesh. I need not name them as we all know who these nationalists or socialists are?

Economy is still scary despite some minor gains on rupee front. Its more political than global issue as explained by our economist PM. Food security, land acquisition and taxation issues need to be revaluated. Need reforms, growth driven model with less subsidies. But for that we need new government. Hope 14 elections will give us this mandate. Thankfully we had good monsoon. But that has not helped eased inflation. Again thanks to some bad governance.

On world stage we have war on our hands as US aggression against Syria takes ominous position. Though Putin had his own way but as always Middle East and regions remains permanent migraine for peace loving people of world. But then world oil economy, capitalism, religion can create a heady cocktail.

Finally we welcomed Ganesha. This blog started in 08 Ganesh Festival. So this blog has lived half a decade. That is a personal landmark though it means nothing more but wish to make more impact in next 5 years.   Each of us can make an impact and I firmly believe the same. That was purpose of Nayakgiri. I pray to Lord Ganesha to give us strength to effect positive changes around us. Happy Ganesh festival to all

Ganesha The God

Rains have gone by. Thought technically monsoon hasn’t retreated. Rainy season was intriguing. June July dry, wet august and steady start to sep. Dams have been filled 100% (on records still 90% as 10% was given to agriculture and downstream towns by guardian minister). The worries of dry year ahead were dispelled thanks to the almighty. The leaders and admin should thank their lucky stars for mismanagement last year when we had excessive rains as were planning paralysis especially for contingencies. We won’t learn from past. Let the lord of wisdom prevail and let there be proper approach to problems faced by our city. It is now time to welcome arrival of the Lord. Whole atmosphere has changed for something auspicious, festive and enjoyable. Though terror looms large (especially after J M Rd events on 1st Aug) but I think sense has prevailed and police seem to be on toes involving mandals and communities. Let the lord show way there to the digressed souls who don’t have any mercy to kill in name of lord. How does name or way of worship of the same lord matter. Why kill? Why insult someone’s beliefs in name of free speech. And why kill to protest same. How irrelevant. Let’s all bury our differences and live happily ever after. Just like terrorism and bad governance another obstacle we wish to almighty is to stop corruption which has resulted in loss of public money, faith in systems and has created role models for young to make big using hook or crook. And finally let there be innovation, let knowledge drive the quest to excellence and let’s break stereotypes, lets conquer our self beliefs, vices, shortcomings to really make our own selves, family, society and country a very better place than what it is now. Ganesha always comes with goodies and hope he helps us achieve my never ending wish list. Wish you a very happy Ganesh festival.


This blog enters fifth year as I complete four years on eve of Ganesh Chaturthi on 2008. This blog has following posts to mark each of Ganpati festival. Would also like to add blog for Ganpati in 2007 when we won inaugural ICCT20. This blog started in next year. What an event that was. Who can forget that last over by much maligned and forgotten Ajit Agarkar leading to bowl out , six sixes by yuvi, great catch by Kartik and great spell from RP choking SAFers, Yuvi knock against Aussies and Shreeshant bowling out mighty Hayden, and finally Gambhir’s knock and that catch by Shreeshant...

Wish all these scenes get repeated once more as this T20 happens to be in Ganesh fest. Bappa’s wish list gets added by one more item. 09 and 10 T20 WCs were followed by IPL seasons where Kirsten had complained about burn out but this time things are different and that difference is emergence of Virat Kohli. I will stick my neck out to say that he will be difference between teams in any match. Let’s get Unmukt Chand into mix as i saw the knock in U19 WC finals. But the big question remains is HIS exit. Or will He have third wind. Important home series follow after T20 WC. The final warrior of golden generation which has defined our cricket life (college and professional live for my generation) will decide upon his future course. New season will be landmark for that reason as we will witness change of guard. And let History begin with shortest format.....

The title of this blog is named after one of the few innovations i got involved with my entrepreneurship career. This CD ROM was inaugurated by Shammi Kapoor who is no more. Though was just there at right time at right place, but that reminds me back to those early IT days (pre Y2K). We all were driven by a vague zeal to be next Infosys. After interacting with young entrepreneurs of today at IIT Kharagpur alumni events and other networks, I can see now people aim to be next Apple or Google or Facebook or some new web3.0 service or some cutting age mobile app, or some new cloud based solution and so on... Things have changed drastically in last decade as we welcome Walmarts and Tescos of world to enter Indian shores. As we also go ahead on US elections, Arab Iran Pak crisis, Prelude to 2014 general elections in India, Maybe MNS-SS joining hands in state, New development plan for Pune, or when we will enact PL’s Narayan this Ganesha in society or will embrace upon new personal challenges , wish for the Lord Ganesha’s blessing. Starting from global to country to state to city to society and self, the timeline ahead is intriguing. Also awaiting start to last quarter which traditionally has been action packed and defining for next year......

Recessions in India

I have been in my profession for last 16 yrs since 1996 when i started out as fresher out of my esteemed campus. This as i count is the fourth cycle of recession since then. Incidentally, this time span can be drawn parallel to opening of Indian economy after 1991. Each recession had varied factors leading to varied, varied experiences and varied response by various entities involved.
Let us start by definition and cause of recession.

Recession is defined as significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months, which is normally visible in real GDP, real income,employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.An economy typically expands for 6-10 years and tends to go into a recession for about six months to 2 years. A recession normally takes place when consumers lose confidence in the growth of the economy and spend less. This leads to a decreased demand for goods and services, which in turn leads to a decrease in production, lay-offs and a sharp rise in unemployment. Investors spend less as they fear stocks values will fall and thus stock markets fall on negative sentiment.Though, i do not have direct experience for span between 91-96 as i was cocooned in distant campus, experts may fill in with some more insight to that time span. Though as per IMF study period between 91-93 was also termed as recession but that can be attributed to past closed economy effect spilling over post 91 era. Also any study prior to 91 is not relevant today as our economy was sheilded from worldwide trends.
As per IMF definition first recession was in 97-98. This recession righly was involved in core sector as new economy sector was fledgeling and with Y2k indian IT story just had no stopping. But volumes very just about getting to grow. Cong govt was replaced by not so strong Devegaouda and IK Gujral governments (Surprisingly PC was in charge then as well). The demand for core goods dropped. There was real estate correction in Mumbai, Auto and ancilliaries demand dropped. I remember all small PCMC Telco dependant suppliers faced shutdowns. and finally there was great Asian crisis impacting finance sector and banks. The great Asian meltdown reminds me of black monday back then sensex dropped for record %.
All this while US was ruled by Clinton and economy was booming which benefitted Indian IT and new economy was grown which took out entire economy out of recession in 99 or so. Also indian politics was stable with BJP government supporting telecom and other disinvestment reforms. Tata indica project revved PCMC belt by the end of millenium.
Then can the great rally of dotcom boom. The markets were bullish with stories of hotmail, junglee, mergers and acqusitions. Portals were coming up. STPI scheme helped mushroom the IT sector. Every builder, seth and panwala registered IT company. Companies retrained Y2k engineers to Java and anyone knowing J of Java went to US. Remember Job markets then.
And then came the bust, suddenly. Dot com valuations were busted and then came 9/11, anhrax, sars, afgan war. Thus every sector was touched be it banking, airlines, manufacturing. IT companies struggled. The same engineers went to US came back and strugged for jobs. I remember plights of freshers out in those years. Its all about being born in right year, as Malcomn Gladwell says in Outliers.  It took late 2003 buyoed by ITES story arising out of second wave of IT, opening of US economy that revived market. India started looking beyond US for new opportunities. Thankfully indian govt was stable all round while modernizing core sectors, stress on infrastructure: port , golden quadrilateral. Economy flourished and 'India shining' feel good factor ads which had some strange connotation in Indian politics were screened in media.  Thanks t o strange ways of indian politics, then came UPA1 govt supported by left. Though Left policies dreaded by stock market were kept at bay shrewdly by team of MMS-Pranav-PC and Sonia. The same team as we now flounders to keep abreast currently. The economy boosted by presence of MMS continued to rally till we had US subprime crisis hitting our financial sector. This time it was the finance sector that was impacted first and effects felt all around. IT sector was impacted by US situation and politics of Obama against outsourcing. Realty sector was hampered by financial lending crisis. There was correction in prises. UPA 1 did well to manage financial policies and kept the global meltdown at bay. Key decisions like nuclear deal, monetary reforms were made. Banking sector fundamentals shared from much maligned preliberalization era helped us.
Then came UPA without left clutches. Market was optimist now that reforms will be pushed. US market started recovering slowly. It took 2010 for US ecomony to look upwards. This time the up circle was shortlived (which normally is 4-6 years). By 2012, thanks to Eurozone crisis, arab iran crisis impacting oil, japan earthquake, china slowdown. India this time floundered due to lack of policy making and political will.
The policy freeze has lowed down foreing investeor confidence and thus rupee weakened. Inflation doesnt allow RBI to cut interest rates. International oil and faling rupee has create BOP crisis like that of pre91. Are we back to pre91 days. Thus cycle has been completed and recession cycles amidst were mere storms in tea cups. This sounds ominimous but we are headed towards Depression. Last time liberalization bailed us out thanks to PV Narsimharao's political will (not MMS who is wrongfully credited). This time what will bail us out. Monsoon also seem depressing till now. Does is call for new elections or war?

Domestic Problem in Indian IT

Some laws which govern behaviour of indian domestic customer for an IT services companies...
1. You can download any software for free from net or get for Rs 400 max from' 'market' so why buy licence or build custom sofwtare paying money to vendor.
2. Vendor and and his employees are your personal slaves now that you have paid some money to him
3. Vendor should spend his own money to make specifications of project and after that you have all rights to decide and discard the project. Everybody does this in sales you know....
4. Vendor personell have transport option like 'engergize' in Star trek serial and can report you anywhere anytime and it costs nothing for vendor
5. Final payment always needs discount as favour while blaming the software not working as expected by him even though he has signed and accepted features.
6.You need to negotiate with vendors saying 'I can develop same project using your graduate relative'
7. Vendor takes responbsibility of maintainng your desktops, O/s , network and webservers depending on type of software you develop.
8 You make your vendor followup for payment atleast thrice before you pay.

there are many more but above ones are very important if you need to be a good IT customer in India...

Rare Partnership

Life springs around some rare partnerships in business and personal life. in sports you have sehwag and dravid. Both different school of thoughts. i had audacity to compare two in some earlier post gloryfying shewags positive attiture over dravids negativity. How so ever you be positive, there are some days when you have to guard. you have to be cautious. remember england 11 summer
anyways strangely that works in professional and personal life as well. some couples are diametrically poles apart but yet they have good life. some business partners add dimensions to business. so variety sometimes helps. though your thought process, interests,values dont match but bet they add new perspective in life. Life is beautiful and new perspectives are always beautiful....
There is lot to learn from each of your partner. in fact learning from others has been my greatest past time. Collaboration is need of date in business for gone are the days for solo enterpreuners....

Buzz about Buzz

Most of us have already been addicted to social networking sites like Facebook, Twitter. Now we have one more distraction called as google buzz. Is its just another of many such applications or is it really adding value to users. Do we really need one more such application
Why did Google release it even before it was ready in market?
It is known that Google still wants to buy Twitter, and putting Buzz into Gmail might be enough of a threat to bring Twitter back on negotiations. Buzz did not launch in some Google Labs backwater. It is placed front and center in Gmail. Buzz is Google’s strongest effort yet to enter the stream. If Buzz can gain traction it would certainly help Google’s negotiating position with Twitter.
Independent of any pressure it may place on Twitter, Google needs to have its own realtime micro-messaging communications system. This system according to many is just a more efficient way to communicate than email for many types of messages so it makes sense to add it as a layer to Gmail: broadcast your public messages via Buzz, and keep private ones on email or chat, all from the same place.
The other reason Google needed to establish its own social stream pronto is that links passed through social sharing are beginning to rival search as a primary driver of traffic for many sites. Part of Google’s prowess stems from the fact that it is the largest referrer of traffic to many other Websites. It doesn’t want to lose that status to social sharing streams such as Facebook or Twitter. Already, Buzz is helping to boost sharing through Google Reader. While Google doesn’t benefit directly from that traffic (yet), simply knowing what links people are sharing and clicking on is valuable data which can help it improve its search results.

It's now been just a few weeks now since Google launched its Google Buzz social-sharing service and started rolling it out to Gmail users. Much of the coverage so far has not been very streamlined . It had a major privacy issue: the initial list of people you auto follow on Buzz is based on who you talk with most often in Gmail, and that list is public unless you choose to make it private.
To its credit, Google responded to complaints: It's made changes in Buzz to make it more obvious what information the service is making public, and to help you crank up the privacy settings. Users thought their contacts were being made public without their knowledge (in particular the lists of people they follow, and the people following them). They have resolved this issue
Google's explanation of the post-release changes points out that millions of people are now using Buzz...and maybe that's part of the issue. Rather than let a sizable pool of testers outside of Google try the service out before opening up the floodgates, it's gone straight to a full-blown launch. Sounds like the company didn't expect some of the confusion that's happening.
Highpoint of Buzz is that it has one of the nicest photo-album viewers .
Buzz lets users include thumbnails when sharing web links, making them more graphic and attractive (according to Google). One way in which Google differentiates its service from Twitter is that Google Buzz also lets users attach various degrees of access to posts, from completely public, to limited to hand-picked friends.
Quite fun is the Buzz map, which lets you see who is Buzzing in your neighbourhood - (albeit with security risks entailed). This is a good way of finding fellow Buzzers in your area.

People may not Twitter and Facebook anytime soon, but Buzz is full of potential and it can become the third major service of this sort. Given Google's history with social stuff, that's impressive in itself.
But multiple aspects of Buzz in its current form are frustrating. And quite frequently, the service leaves user confused.
Consider the following points:
If you're on a PC or Mac, Buzz is a feature within Gmail and therefore requires that you be a Gmail user to use all its features. But if you're on a mobile phone, it's a separate service, not a Gmail feature. Odd!
* Even in a desktop browser, the Google Public Profiles that are part of the privacy concerns over Buzz don't live in Buzz. Since the Profiles provide personal info that goes beyond Buzz-specific stuff. It is still confusing and ungainly -- if you're in Buzz and want to figure out who somebody is, you'll probably have to click out of Buzz and into his or her Profile...and then back into Buzz.
* There is a yellow strip alongside the left-hand side of Buzz posts for 24 hours which is not explained. One has to figure out that the posts to its right are new since the last time user checked Buzz.
Buzz-in-your-Gmail-inbox feature is also confusing. When someone comments on user’s posts, user gets a thread in his inbox, but it starts with a message that looks like it's coming from user himself, listing his own post . It's especially unhelpful when I'm looking at the message in his own iPhone's inbox, since the subject line is the pointless "Buzz from XYZ," and I have to open the message to see what message is. User can't figure out which post someone has commented on.

Dark Clouds

in my earlier post i had commented on rise of Google as positioned vis a vis Microsoft. Google CEO was then bullish about Cloud computing be the next thing which will change technological landscape. Ofcourse Google is still on track with launch of O/s to take MS head on. Ms has laughed off Google O/s. Google is unstoppable. But Clouds are yet to rain. The biggest threat of security concerns were laid bare by various attacks and data thefts on Twitter . Though proponets of cloud have mentioned this as exception and have blamed twitter for lack of process. It has again laid focus on best security practices. It also has created privacy issues like corporates having access to this information. Can you imagine Google as Big brother knowing more details about you than you yourselves do. And human mind is very susceptible to greed and ambition that has manifested into greatest scams and global phenomenons like depression currently we are facing. So has cloud answered these anamoloies. Can the security systems be robust enough . Ultimately everything turns to a password. In real world you have keys to secure your valuables. But effort has to be made to break the lock, enter the premises unnoticed, manage security guards, get out with the loot unnocticed and then get absonced to avoid detection, have network to sell the valuables and remain untraced..
In online cloud world its just you need to crack the password.
Scary , not that. We still can have processes to manage the threat. But issues still unanswered.
Interesting times ahead

Derivates Markets should be banned

Welcome to the brave new world of credit derivatives driven collapses ( AIG being the first victim). A world that is far more dangerous than the world of subprime mortgage derivatives. A complex world that because of its sheer size can potentially cause more damage in a matter of days than the subprime mortgage derivatives caused in their first year in the headlines.
Compare this figure: Global economy: 55 trillion dollars
Credit Derivatives: 65 trillion dollars
Subprime derivatives: 7 trillion dollars
Now you would imagine the results if further trend continues.
Leveraging positions was found as best way to manage risk for say against variation in prices , interest rates etc... Good idea to hedge.
But what took over was a naked greed and unviable risks, unbeleivable competetion, interlinked markets ... all boons of free and globalized economy.
Proponents point out to figures as to how they have contributed to growth of overall markets and economy while shielding the risks... They claim for tighter regulation, better management as opposed to altogther ban.
But i do not think free economy has such tools to do that. Thus i am firm proponent of banning them. I am firm beleiver in "value investing" school subscribed by Warren Buffet. Sound financial advises by him are worth reading. No point in trading positions and creating artificial wealth and taking in calculable risks...
Maybe our Indian mentality of savings, averse to loans out of self respecting notions, prundent sense of value investing can be assets for us which were ridiclued as " hindu rate of growth".
Much details on this thread later..

Google Vs Microsoft: is it beginning of end for MS

In its history, its been n th time this question has been asked. Will microsoft survive onslaught of google. I am firm beleiver in Microsoft. But a trend i see changing is that the better minds find google more glamourous to work for than MS. Thats a warning signal. Unless microsoft comes up with some 'next big thing' which in recent past have not been so prominent.
Google believes future in cloud computing as their big thing.
What is cloud computing? Lets get google ceo Eric schmidt's explaination:
He thinks 90% of computing can be done using this web based cloud as Internet connection speeds become faster and Internet software improves. There are certain amount of things that can’t be done in the cloud, like high-end graphics processing. So, in Google’s thinking, 90 percent of computing eventually reside in the cloud?
Microsoft challenges this in its defense.
Disruptive technologies do not destroy existing market leaders overnight. They do not get adopted by the entire market at the same time. They are not initially a viable option for mainstream users. Initially, they do not even seem to be a threat.
Disruptive technologies begin by providing a cheaper, more convenient, simpler solution that meets the needs of the low-end of the market. Low-end users don't need all the features in the Incumbent's product, so they rapidly adopt the simpler solution. Meanwhile, the Incumbent canvasses its mainstream customers, reassures itself that they want the feature-rich products, and dismisses the Disruptor as a niche player in an undesirable market segment.
But then the Disruptor improves its products, adding more features while keeping the convenience and low cost. Now the product appeals to more mainstream users, who adopt it not because it's "better" but because it's simpler and cheaper. Seeing this, the Incumbent continues adding ever more features and functionality to its core product to try to maintain its value proposition for higher end customers. And so on. Eventually, the Incumbent's product overshoots the needs of the mass market, the Disruptor grabs the mainstream customers, and, lo and behold, the technology has been "disrupted."
Microsoft had been disruptor in past. it claims to have best of both worlds. Claims to have graphics rich desktop applications (office being leader without doubt) and services as well.
I also agree this isn't a "winner take all" scenario. This is a huge market and there is room for different solutions and business models. Look at IBM. They are still a very large and successful company 30 years after they were "disrupted" by Microsoft.
But its not a question of survival but of leadership. thats what the game is all about and i agree to my learned friend anshu's observation that companies are made of people who make plans and strategies and implement them. Google seems to have that as of now... I can put my money there..
More about cloud computing simplified later..