Booming Population

 

Humans have something against humans at every point in History. I am not talking about wars and ideologies here, humans also historically have fought about the number of living beings as counted in their community, region, nation, or the world. In popular context, this number is called the population of that community, region or nation, or mankind. Some people feel that there are more human beings that this planet can house. Though humans have started exploring space, there is a long way to go. Meanwhile, we have changed this planet irreversibly to be an ideal house for humanity.  We can introduce a delta change that can delay the inevitable or get some magic wand to dissolve all the impurities of this planet.  But the question is how many human beings are too much for this planet.  Some on the other hand have justified that numbers are beneficial. No one seems to be totally correct or wrong. Ancient folklores had predicted doom due to population explosion across the ancient cultures. In the Indian context, we have stories of destruction and restarts.  Philosophers from Plato to thinkers like Malthus have warned humanity against numbers. On other hand, Developed countries that scorned under-developed countries for lack of resources are now feeling the pinch of low fertility rates. This is a tricky issue for mankind.  

But one fact is undisputable: we have limited resources on this planet. Experts say ” Our species evolved from apes and has undergone a population explosion, damaging every habitat on the planet.  In 2018, scientists found a plastic bag 10,898m at the bottom of the Mariana Trench, while another team recently discovered man-made "forever chemicals" on Mount Everest. No part of the world is pristine – every lake, forest, and the canyon have been touched by human activity. But on the other side, our sheer numbers and ingenuity have enabled humanity to achieve feats that no other animal could dream of – splitting atoms, sending complex equipment nearly a million miles to observe planets forming in distant galaxies, and contributing to a staggering diversity of art and culture. Every day, we collectively take 4.1 billion photographs and exchange between 80 and 127 trillion words.” On the specific date of 15 November 2022, the UN has predicted that there will be eight billion humans alive at the same time. Some view our rising numbers as an unprecedented success story – in fact, there's an emerging school of thought that we actually need more people. In 2018 the tech billionaire Jeff Bezos predicted a future in which our population will reach a new decimal milestone, in the form of a trillion humans scattered across our Solar System. Others, meanwhile – including the British broadcaster and natural historian Sir David Attenborough – have labeled our swarming masses a "plague on the Earth". In this view, nearly every environmental problem we're currently facing, from climate change to biodiversity loss, water stresses, and conflicts over land can be traced back to our rampant reproduction over the last few centuries. Back in 1994 – when the global population was a mere 5.5 billion – a team of researchers from Stanford University, in California, calculated that the ideal size of our species would be between 1.5 and 2 billion people. As a result of its controversial history, population engineering is a deeply divisive area. At one end of the spectrum lie those who see lower fertility rates in some areas as a crisis. One demographer is so concerned by the localized drop in the birth rate in the UK that he has suggested taxing the childless.  The opposing view is that slowing and eventually halting global population growth is not only eminently manageable and desirable, but it can be achieved via entirely voluntary means – methods such as simply providing contraception to those who would like it, and educating women. In this way, proponents of this position believe we could not only benefit the planet but improve the quality of life experienced by the poorest citizens worldwide. 

But there is a collective consensus to identify the problems and create a change. The absolute number of people in a country is not the most important factor. Instead, it's the rate of its population's growth or decline that is key to a country's future prospects – this determines how quickly things are changing. India will overtake China as the most populous country by 2025 or perhaps sooner. However, this should not be inferred to assume that India is undergoing a proverbial population explosion. Population statistics show that India’s population growth peaked decades ago and it is already on a downward trajectory. According to the United Nation’s population projections, India’s population will increase by a multiple of 1.09 between 2021 and 2031. This number was 1.25 between 1981 and 1991. From 2060 onwards, India’s population will start falling, which happens when fertility rate falls below replacement levels. By 2100, which is as far as UN population projections go to, India’s population will be 1.45 billion after having peaked at 1.65 billion in 2059. It’s the not the change but rate of change that matters. A low population, which means fewer workers, also means a scarcity of productive hands in the economy. This actually generates headwinds, rather than tailwinds for economic growth. An increasing share of older people in its population, thanks to its one-child policy, is what has forced China to abandon the old policy and encourage couple to have more children. India is poised at a unique moment in history, where it can exploit its demographic advantage to realize its economic goals. According to the government’s population projections, 53.6% of India’s population in 2021 is under the age of 29. More than a quarter of India’s population is 14 years or younger. This young cohort can become extremely productive or unproductive depending on the skill sets it acquires. 

Ability to plan and create resources, and using human capital on one hand while managing environment and sustain humanity is challenge for the population of every country including India.