It’s finally summertime in this part of the world. Last weekend, I was at a beach town in Cape Cod Massachusetts. Many Tourists were hanging out in numbers on Main Street’s famous bakeries. There were leisurely walks on the beach, there was a live music band on Saturday afternoon followed by dining out at a popular joint eating codfish and chips and watching Boston Celtics match along with ardent fans. The atmosphere was close to the one we experienced in the summer of 2019. This summer promises to be different from the last two summers.
In the spring of 2020, the Virus from Wuhan created a disruption that impacted all walks of life including the tourism-based economy and lifestyle at many popular tourist destinations all across the world. Countries closed their borders. Countries imposed lockdowns. Mask mandates were compulsory. Jobs were lost and Governments infused funds into the economies. The whole ‘work from home’ culture emerged and it will occupy the landscape for a long time. There were many socio-economic fallouts. Globalization was threatened. Real estate markets changed. Virus impacted urban and rural areas differently. There was a disparity in the fallouts.
But this summer promises normalcy in life which we missed for the last two years. But then again we face something like a Medical student’s second-year syndrome. This is a condition frequently reported in medical students, who perceive themselves to be experiencing the symptoms of a disease that they are studying. We collectively have studied so many things about the pandemic that our mindset doesn’t allow us to come out of the pandemic. It’s not just the mindset even the medical experts and collective wisdom now treat the current situation as far removed from the normalcy of pre-Covid days. Summer of 2019 seems miles away. Remember the General Elections and Semifinal loss in the ICC WC Semifinal?
The past two pandemic summers saw a spike in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and death, but even the experts predict that this season may be different. Though health experts expect cases to rise, they said the wave won't be as devastating as the previous two summers or the surge of the omicron variant of the coronavirus.
Unlike the previous summers, major parts of the population have some immunity against the coronavirus from vaccines, boosters, and previous infections. People have access to antivirals that can prevent hospitalizations in the unvaccinated. However, immunity wanes and new variants could evade what protection remains. Coronavirus trends in the spring give experts clues about what to expect this summer. Cases plummeted after the omicron surge in the winter, then plateaued and began to rise again in the spring as a generic trend. Though the unpredictable coronavirus makes it difficult to pinpoint what the summer will look like, experts have a few theories. Experts say: The worst-case scenario is the emergence of a potent variant that isn't dulled by vaccines and previous infections, causing a large wave of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
A full surge over the summer is going to be really dependent on a variant fully emerging. That tends to be the biggest trigger that will send us into a surge. Those transmissible variants are good at finding pockets of unvaccinated people, and those people are more at risk of hospitalization and death. Remember last summer we saw the Delta variant creating havoc worldwide. The best-case scenario is a sustained level of low transmission and no new variants. Few experts also expect the situation this summer to land in the middle: a small wave throughout the country with a slight uptick in hospitalizations and deaths. Areas likely to be most affected by this swell are ones not heavily affected by the omicron variant where people haven't mounted immunity protection. Barring a devastating variant, most health experts agree, we may finally be out of the acute pandemic phase. It's still far from an endemic phase, when COVID-19 would become like the seasonal flu, bringing a week or two of misery but a low risk of severe disease or death.
For COVID-19 to be considered endemic, scientists must determine manageable level of transmission. That hasn't happened yet. A virus also can be considered endemic when it follows a predictable spreading pattern. For example, health officials can predict each year when the flu season will start and end, what strains may appear and how many cases may occur whereas SARS-CoV-2 hasn't shown a discernible seasonable pattern. Experts say: An endemic virus doesn’t disrupt people’s lives and that’s not the case with COVID-19. When people test positive for the coronavirus, they have to isolate themselves from family members, quarantine, wear a mask and avoid travel. Sometimes a person is pulled out of school or works from home and must notify close contacts. Although the virus hasn't entered an endemic phase, health experts hope we are on our way. The first step is to prevent severe illness, so a surge in cases doesn't lead to more hospitalizations and deaths through vaccines and practicing mitigation measures to keep vulnerable ones safe. The best way to do this is to stay up to date with their vaccines and practice mitigation measures to keep vulnerable loved ones safe. We also expect countries to have clarity in policies and remove hurdles like unclear travel requirements and so on. We really look forward to getting back to the normalcy of the summer of 2019.
Two years of pandemic trauma have taught us many things and reinforced some we already knew. The next pandemic won’t be a surprise at least to infectious disease experts. We have seen multiple outbreaks of newly emerging diseases over the past 50 years including several other coronaviruses. We need to think smart and move fast. As one of the Stanford professors says that the idea that the virus will fade away is forgetting that there are going to be major bumps in the road and those bumps could be painful. Two years is not long enough to know how this story ends.
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