Monday, October 26, 2009

Decade Cycle

Last quarter of decade is one month old almost. How has been this decade: the 00 s. Started with Y2k unknown (predictions were enormous) nothing happened but helped india create a core competance. Dotcom bust was the main fallout of 00;s Bad start. Then 9/11 something which was never seen by anyone zoomed on to TV at homes. Then started afgan war, iraq war, anthrax scare, SARS, Bird flu calamities galore. Things went back to normal by 05. Then started outsourcing boom /manufacturing boom for india/china: a second wave again to fall flat with greatest recession, swine flu scare. Almost a wheel has turned a whole cycle....
whats in store for decade of 10...? Noone knows. Recovery is predicted... lets see...
For India, now our economy being connected globally, almost had same cycle economically. But to an extent our economy has fared well. Some basic fundamentals were correct.
But we had problems galore: Terrorism parlament attackes, 11/26, mumbai train blasts, various blasts in cities like delhi, ahmedabad, banaglore, so on.... Naxalism has grown rampant. Flood 26 july, bihar, famines, earthquakes, tsunami. some positive developments as well like chandrayaan, RTI, economical benefits to needy, Good network of roads. Political space marked demise of NDA and rise and rise of UPA.
Decade of Bollywood was marked by Star wars of khans with aamir doing out of box while shahrukh cannot break free of mould, Big B coming back and staying at top, Multiplex film phenomenon and some new faces tried to create out of formula succcesses. But economics got skewed and complex with many media options.
On cricket, we built a new team under ganguly for great achievements. Then all was lost by chappell with WC disaster. Rise and Rise of Dhoni, T20 and IPL.... But still we remain at 2nd or 3rd position.
In IT: after .com bust, model has to revamp around end to end solutions and cover BPO. Web 2.0 came in with social networking focus. net penetration in india, Mobile penetration in India reached scales. SaaS and Clouds will be rule breakers. ERP companies evolved onto those models. Consolidation happened in Industry. Recession impacted badly since 07. Indian story lost zing due to cost models getting offset by rising cost of people, real estate etc. So there was talk about value creation. H1b and outsourcing created bad publicity for india during US elections. Google was out and out winner through web ad models. Web is ever growing. Microsoft is still catching up after vista debacle. Open source predictions did not match the bullish trends.
Culture has changed drastically atleast here in india. new generations have taken over.. seems like our time ended last decade of 90s with toll of Y2k. Time for my daugther to take over.... No but her decade will start on 1st jan 2020. Vision twenty twenty.... So now all those born since 90 to take over.

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